The mobility sector, worth 4,000 billion euros, looks like a new Eldorado. And appetites are sharpening among players: automakers, financial institutions and high-tech companies. Find out more from Bertrand de la Villéon* published in Capital in January 2023.
WHAT'S AT STAKE IN THE MOBILITY OF THE FUTURE?
The mobility market remains segmented. On the one hand, there are incumbent players such as automakers, short-term rental companies (Sixt, Europcar) and long-term rental companies (Arval, ALD), as well as public and private mass transit operators (RATP, Keolis, Transdev, etc.). On the other, the new automotive entrants (Tesla, Link & Co), mobility services and solutions providers (Uber, BlaBlaCar) and software or artificial intelligence "tech companies" (Google Waymo, Microsoft). They are still each "in their own lane", whereas the great decompartmentalization around the concept of mobility is underway.
In this major transformation to come, we need above all to satisfy consumer expectations. Getting around is and will remain an essential human need. It is therefore likely that any restrictions in this area will be overwhelmingly rejected. The development of "collective" mobility is part of the answer to economic and ecological challenges, but it is not sufficient to meet certain legitimate individual needs.
So what are the other key issues in the equation? The mobility of the future will remain a mass-market concept, providing safe, industrialized, clean, efficient and flexible solutions at a cost acceptable to all. It will free itself from the principle of ownership to develop the notion of service and use, adapted both to changes in purchasing behavior and to the optimal use of resources.
It will have to respond to global dynamics, from the extreme urbanization of metropolises to the specific needs of rural areas, to the emancipation lever it represents for developing countries. It will be multimodal, particularly in urban areas where, paradoxically, congestion is increasing as individual vehicles are banished from city centers. Mobility of the future will need to incorporate a number of pioneering technologies (autonomous driving, hydrogen, solid batteries, etc.) to meet future constraints. Finally, it will need to be frugal in terms of infrastructure development. will require finding the "trusted third party" capable of proposing a comprehensive offer and ensuring a fair redistribution of value between operators. For the time being, this issue remains unresolved.
MOBILITY WINNERS
Faced with this multi-criteria equation, no single player can impose itself on this market. The winners will be the automakers, who will affirm their shift towards services and forge closer ties with software and digital players.
Financial services will be the "shovel sellers" in this new gold rush. They hold the key to transforming the cost of owning means of mobility into a rent for use, or even a subscription for users.
Finally, in areas of high mobility density, wouldn't the trusted third party be an organizing authority that also acts as a link with the public transport offer? Recent market transactions foreshadow this trend. Examples include Stellantis' alliance with Amazon and its recent acquisition of the autonomous vehicle company aiMotive, Renault's alliance with Google, and Volkswagen's with Microsoft. Luca de Meo, Renault's CEO, has stated that his group will eventually become a "technology company that integrates vehicles".
Big moves are also underway between banks and automakers in the financing sector: from the overhaul of partnerships at Stellantis, to Renault renaming its bank "Mobilize Financial Services" to bring it closer to mobility services; from the takeover of LeasePlan by ALD Automotive, a subsidiary of Société Générale (number 2 and number 3 in operational leasing), to the new ambitions of Crédit Agricole (operational leasing joint venture with Stellantis, purchase of Stellantis' shares in Fiat Bank), not to mention the buzz around subscription offers (acquisition of specialist start-ups such as Fleetpool by ALD or Bipi by Renault). And this is just the beginning!
*Bertrand de la Villéon, Eurogroup Consulting partner, author of the study "The future Amazon of mobility".
