What will be the outlook for retail banking in France in 2024?
Are market and economic conditions affecting retail banks?
Our sector This study presents the financial results of the domestic business and the performance of the retail banks of France's leading banking groups: BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole, Société Générale and BPCE.
These results were analyzed along several axes: market and economic conditions, sales performance, cost of risk, profitability, extra-financial performance and macro-trends expected for 2025.
An analysis of sales performance
After the brutal rate shock to contain inflation, the post-2024 easing boosts credit and reshuffle the cards in banking performance. From June 2024 onwards, there will be a marked increase in new loan production, particularly from the fourth quarter of 2024 onwards.
The dynamics of the four major banking groups analysed, which represent 80% of the sector's balance sheet totalare in 2024 between NBI growth and cost control, with more nuanced trajectories over two years.
One of the levers used by these establishments is the development of their commissions to offset the pressure on net interest margins, in particular via premium services, insurance and asset management. Other noteworthy developments include strong growth in off-balance sheet deposits, a slowdown in home loans and differentiated approaches to balance sheet management.
Cost of risk, profitability and financial performance
Overall, a sharpest deterioration in cost of risk for BNP Paribas and Société Générale, while BPCE and Crédit Agricole posted greater resistance.
These results are in line with the trend in the performance of retail banking in France, which was overall deterioration between 2022 and 2024This was due in particular to pressure on interest margins and changes in the cost of risk.
Finally, with regard to extra-financial performancethe French banks are more committed than the industry average, focusing for example on reducing the carbon footprint of their financing and supporting customers in their energy transition (illustrated by the implementation of the NZBA roadmap with quantified targets for reducing carbon emissions in key sectors and reducing fossil fuel financing by 2030).
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