CIB PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK
The first half of 2025 confirmed a fragile economic environment. The OCDE projects global growth at 2.9% this year (after 3.1% in 2024), but trajectories diverge: a US rebound (+3.8% in Q2), modest recovery in Europe (+1.6%), limited growth in the UK (+0.3% in Q2), and emerging markets under pressure from new US tariffs (effective average rate at 18.6%, the highest since 1933). Against this backdrop, capital markets revenues rose 13% YoY, but performance dispersion across banks remains pronounced. Structurally, revenue and cost dynamics across geographies have followed similar cycles since FY2023, downturn, recovery, and acceleration, but the amplitudes differ: US banks achieved a steeper rebound in revenues, while European peers exhibited greater volatility in cost efficiency. UK banks remain closer to the European profile.
On the non-financial side, ESG integration accelerates: According to our reserach, European banks score 36% higher than US peers, with reporting converging toward IFRS S1/S2 despite delays, while investors demand integrated ESG-financial data and deploy GenAI tools to assess double materiality.
From AI to Agentic AI in Banking and CIBs
AI investments topped $250bn as of 2024YE and could reach $1.2tn by 2030, with banking alone attracting $26bn in 2024, set to quintuple by 2030. In CIBs, most use cases focus on cost savings, cutting up to 25% in compliance, operations, and customer service costs, though ROI on revenues remains unclear.
Generative AI is scaling fast: BNP Paribas targets 1,000 use cases in production by 2025YE (c.€500m in value), Standard Chartered has deployed SC GPT to 70,000 staff in 41 markets, and JPMorgan runs 300+ AI use cases within an $18bn tech budget. Goldman Sachs’s Marquee shows how advanced analytics and execution can be monetized, paving the way for agentic AI.
This new frontier promises autonomous decision-making and deeper transformation but also raises risks around trust and compliance, with Gartner warning that 40% of projects may be cancelled by 2027. Success will hinge on robust data governance, cross-functional collaboration, and strong talent strategies, as people remain central to scaling AI effectively.
ABOUT
Eurogroup Consulting London
Specialised in corporate and investment banking, we work alongside the largest banks and financial institutions, to help them face the challenges posed by the fast-evolving market.
Matthieu Prieuret
Partner - UK Office
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